22 Comments
Nov 29, 2021Liked by Scott Hines

The whole dynamic of "Nerdy Ivory Tower School President" hires a "Athletic Director Whose Main Skill is Fundraising" who hires a "Football Coach So Focused on Football That He Doesn't Know What an Asparagus Is" is just so funny to me

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author

Tennessee Football has been quite the performance art project the last 20 years. Josh Heupel seems to be a good hire so far, but also [taps article] I don't know shit.

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"Who the bleep is Kirk Ferentz??!?" -- me, December 1998

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Nov 29, 2021Liked by Scott Hines

the main thing I have confidence in right now is that i'm extremely annoyed at other teams' fans feeling like they are entitled to my team's coach.

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author

I understand this feeling very deeply.

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Nov 29, 2021Liked by Scott Hines

I thought that you might.

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Co-signed! Thankfully Michigan State seems to have finally stopped thinking of Pitt as their coach incubator. Only took like seven years though. 🙄

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Nov 29, 2021Liked by Scott Hines

As a Bobcat, we're in a weird place, confidence-wise. Our long-time coach retired unexpectedly on short notice mere weeks before the season began, and long after all the other CFB dominoes had fallen into place. We promoted our OC into the head position, and missed a bowl for the first (non-covid) time in recent memory. This was about as consistent as you could be while still undergoing change, but nevertheless the results differed greatly.

I have no idea if we are going to press on with our short-term solution as a long-term project, or if it's even worth dipping toes into saturated waters at this point. Solich was a fortunate hire those many years ago, and I doubt that we'll be able to draw anyone of his caliber from the present candidates.

Like the author, though, I know little when it comes to these things, though.

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Nov 29, 2021Liked by Scott Hines

This may seem blindingly obvious but I feel like there are so many variables to a team's success any given year that "who's the coach" is barely a finger on the scale. So when a school makes a big name hire that gets everyone fired up, it's much more likely to set up a disastrous fall from sky-high expectations than to work out.

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I think the coach is certainly a factor, but good coaches who won't succeed without a lot of those variables turning in their favor, and there are less-seemingly-promising coaches who might surprise us if all of them do.

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Nov 29, 2021Liked by Scott Hines

Yeah I think that's it. Something like, some guys might move the needle from a 50% chance of a great season to a 55-60% chance. But we expect some big names to make it 75%, which probably isn't the case, and also still leaves 25% chance of Cursed Nebraska

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a bad coach, on the other hand, can easily move that needle to 0%, and then get fired and run for the Senate

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Nov 29, 2021Liked by Scott Hines

I remember thinking Coach O would be a very disastrous hire for LSU. He caught lightning in a bottle that one year; then he proceeded to lose his coaching staff, his QB, his wife and his mind.

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author

The end of the Coach O era was pretty much in line with expectations, it’s just wild there was a title in the middle.

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founding

It's the same story as Da Chiz. Once-in-a-lifetime QB leaves, coordinators take HC jobs elsewhere, and the program craters.

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Nov 29, 2021Liked by Scott Hines

"No one works in a vacuum" eh? Tell that to Kirby Smart!

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"future senator Tommy Tuberville"

:monkey paw retracts single finger:

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Sometimes it goes the other way: You find a coach that has confidence that your school is capable of at least modest football success when even the alumni don't believe that's possible. Things have slipped in the last couple of years, but today's a good day to thank David Cutcliffe for proving to us all that it's possible to say "hell yes, it's Duke football!" He left the job miles better than he found it and with a real institutional foundation to match. Here's hoping the next guy can build on that.

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You just don't know what you don't know, especially if you're an AD. Everyone thought that Fuente was a home run hire at the time. Everyone responded to the Mike Young hire with a resounding, "Who?" Look how both of those have turned out. I just want the coaching search to hurry up and end. I've learned to temper my expectations.

For me, coaching hires seem to be like albums. You either love it right away, but then end up not really liking it over time, or it underwhelms at first, but ends up being one of your favorites. But that's just me.

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can't say I know how Lincoln will do at USC, but I do know that as an OU fan I'm teetering between wanting to hate watch every USC game next season and not watching football ever again so there's that

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I didn't think Pete Carroll was going to be any good, so I am pretty comfortable in saying I don't know much about assessing new coaches.

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And sometimes confidence is taking your one more shot "I'm betting on myself" chance, revamping almost everything about your staff, accepting help from people who have been begging to help you for years, and finding joy in football again. It shouldn't have worked, it's not unprecedented, but it's lightly precedented, and it worked.

We know but one thing, that we know nothing.

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